Breeders’ Cup Under the Microscope: How Formidable Are the Juvenile Favorites?

The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile constantly generates plenty of attention because racing fans are constantly searching for a possible Kentucky Derby horse, but the race itself can be a tricky puzzle to crack.
Just four favorites have won the Juvenile from 1998-2017 — the previous 20 editions of this 1??1/16-mile race — with the typical winning chances at almost 11-1.
There are so many elements that play to handicapping Breeders’ Cup World Championships races, along with the 2-year-old races pose additional factors such as determining quality of rivalry coming from stakes filled with maiden winners, runners shipping for your first time, seeing a massive crowd for the first time, etc.,. Plus, there is significantly less information in the past performances with which to formulate your opinion.
With that in mind, let us mine to get some interesting pieces of advice in the previous 20 editions of the Juvenile that may be useful as you pare down your list of contenders.
First, let’s concentrate on all 20 races to try to identify historical trends that may prove invaluable. Since this year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., I will then narrow the range to go in depth on the editions of the Juvenile held under the Twin Spires. Finally, we’ll take a better look at this year’s entrants to try to determine a few runners which fit the profile of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner.
The race will be televised on NBC Sports reside at 6:05 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs as part of this”Future Stars Friday” card on Nov. 2. What are a few of the key takeaways from the last 20 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?
Uncle Mo dominates in 2010. (Eclipse Sportswire)
From 1998-2017, only four favorites (20 percent) have prevailed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Three of those four — Shanghai Bobby (2012), Uncle Mo (2010), and War Pass (2007) — were both unbeaten and restricted perfect tournament campaigns in the Juvenile.
Eight winners struck in double-digit odds (10-1) or greater, most recently Great Magic at 11.50-1 final season, including four at 26.80-1 or higher: Vale of York (30.60-1 in 2009), Wilko (28.3-1 in 2004), Action This Day (26.80-1 in 2003), and Anees (30.3-1 at 1999).
The typical odds for the winner within the 20-year stretch was only a shade below 11-1 (10.835-1) with a median of 6.70-1. The chances range from 13-10 for Shanghai Bobby in 2012 to 30.6-1 for Vale of York in 2009.
All but one of the previous 20 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were bred in Kentucky. Irish-bred Vale of York, who in 2009 won on the synthetic main track at Santa Anita, was the only exception.
Twelve of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners won their final prep race. In fact, all 20 completed in the top three and 18 of 20 won or completed within three lengths of the winner in their final pre-Breeders’ Cup start. None dropped by more than five lengths.
Ten of the 12 who won their final prep did so by open spans (one length or more).
Seven of the 12 last-out winners restricted unbeaten seasons in the Juvenile.
Eight of the previous 20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners were Grade 1 winners entering the World Championships and 10 were graded stakes winners. Only two horses were not stakes winners or rated stakes-placed: Action This Day for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella and New Year’s Day for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert equally won the Juvenile off maiden successes.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners entered the race with a combined 46 wins from 76 begins from 1998-2017 to get a 60.5% strike rate.
Eighteen of the 20 made their last start with six months of rest or less and 16 of the 20 came to the race on five weeks of rest or less. New Year’s Day won the Juvenile in his third start after winning a maiden special weight race at Del Mar fourteen days prior to the Breeders’ Cup.
Twelve of the 20 Juvenile winners had expertise in a race moving around two turns. Three others completed their final prep in Europe and four came out of this one-turn-mile Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
The Juvenile historically was a really fair race for all running fashions since its beginning, and also the past 20 years are no exception. Seven winners profiled as rate or press-the-pace type runners, six profiled as stalkers, four were stalkers/closer, and three profiled as dedicated closers.
Three horses have led from begin to finish and five rallied from eight lengths back or more after a half-mile.
Four winners led after the first half-mile in the Juvenile from 1998-2017 and 13 of 20 were fifth or better.
The typical winner was sixth/fifth after first quarter-mile and 3.67 lengths back, improving to 3.64 spans back after the first half-mile. The median position has been fourth/third at the first two points of telephone, two spans after the first quarter-mile and 2 1/4 spans back after a half-mile.
Twelve of the 20 winners headed to early stretch and 16 were third or better.
Macho Uno’s success by a nose in 2000 has been the smallest margin of victory while Street Sense’s 10-length romp in 2006 was the most significant margin.
Six variations of this Juvenile were determined by a neck or less, while on the other side of this coin five editions were won by 4 1/4 lengths or longer.
The average margin of victory was 2.213 (only under two 1/4 spans ). The median margin of success is 1 1/4 lengths.
The average Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is 108.9 with a median of 108.5.
Shanghai Bobby made an 86 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the 2012 Juvenile, that was the slowest from the 20-year elongate, while War Pass (2007) and Uncle Mo (2010) both gained a 123, the maximum figure.

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