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East region

Best seed outlook: As stated by this FiveThirtyEight model, high seed Duke has the best chance of advancing to the Final Four in the whole field (53 percent probability) in addition to the best likelihood of winning the national title (19 percent).
The Blue Devils are led by four soon-to-be first-round draft selections, such as Zion Williamson, among the greatest abilities in recent memory. Duke is a walking highlight reel on the offensive end and much stingier on defense than many might realize. This is among Mike Krzyzewski’s most-balanced teams and jobs to be his first since 2010 to rank within the top six in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. That team won the national title.1
This team lacks, however, is signature across the perimeter. Duke shoots a grisly 30.2 percent from beyond the arc, the worst marker among tournament-qualifying teams. Within an offensive age increasingly dominated by distance and perimeter scoring, the Blue Devils could buck the trend punishing the rim.
On the other side of the region is that the winner of the Big Ten conference championship, Michigan State. As their reward, the No. 2 Spartans have the honour of a potential matchup from the top overall seed in the Elite Eight. Head coach Tom Izzo was none too pleased. The Spartans have been pummeled by accidents but remain one of the most balanced teams in the country, standing within the top eight in Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Virginia Tech. Directed by the star pairing of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hokies are a balanced squad that ranks one of Pomeroy’s Top 25 teams on both the defense and offense. Although they have dropped eight times, just two of those were double-digits. Virginia Tech also has a not-altogether-unfriendly draw, with extremely winnable opening games against Saint Louis (87 percent) and the Mississippi State-Liberty winner (63 percent) before most probably running to Duke’s juggernaut. We give the Hokies a respectable 25 percent chance from the Blue Devils — and a 54 percent chance against individuals emerges from the base of the area if they do manage to knock off Duke.
Do not bet : No. 3 LSU. With trainer Will Wade embroiled in a pay-for-play scandal and his group likely overvalued as a 3-seed, the Bayou Bengals could be ripe for an upset in this particular tournament. They ranked only 18th in Pomeroy’s ratings — roughly the caliber of a No. 5 seed — thanks in large part to a defense that didn’t even decode the country’s top 60 in corrected efficiency. (This showed up in the 51 second-half things they permitted to Florida while shedding their first match of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA path is not very easy, either: Yale is no pushover as a No. 14 seed, nor will be possible second-round opponent Maryland, and we all give the Tigers a mere 26 percent likelihood of beating Michigan State when the groups meet at the Sweet Sixteen. This is easily the lowest-rated top-three seed within the field.
Cinderella watch: No. 11 Belmont. The East is top-heavy, together with Duke and Michigan State soaking up most of the Last Four chances. But the Bruins are still an intriguing lower-seeded group because of an impressive crime led by do-everything swingman Dylan Windler. According to Pomeroy, Belmont ranks 20th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (and second nationwide in raw points per game behind Gonzaga), while Windler was one of just three players nationally to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Although the Bruins do need to win a play-in match against Temple only to produce the field of 64 — we provide them a 59 percent chance — they would have an extremely aggressive 39 percent likelihood of bothering Maryland in the first round and an even greater chance from the LSU/Yale winner.
Player to watch: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Three years ago, zzo stated he thought his 6-foot-1 freshman would be Michigan State’s best passer because Magic Johnson. The Spartans’ do-everything point guard — one of the best facilitators in the nation — is supporting his coach’s comment. Just Murray State’s Ja Morant, a surefire lottery pick in this year’s draft, has a higher assist rate than Winston (46.0 percent). And behind Winston, the Spartans help on the highest speed of field goals in the country.
The junior also happens to be Izzo’s top scorer and among the country’s top perimeter threats, shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc. As harms have sapped the Spartans of their on-court production, Winston has raised his game to compensate. As he put it to The Athletic,”I must do a whole lot for my team to win”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Central Florida over No. 8 VCU (47 percent); No. 11 Belmont* over No. 6 Maryland (39 percent); No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Louisville (34 percent)